
Nate
shared a media post in group #A Glance of China 行摄中国 via #A Glance of China 行摄中国
Can China come back from THIS?
The economic data is in... and it's bleak. While I'm an eternal optimist, it's hard to deny that China is struggling.
But just HOW bad is it?
Visual Capitalist just released a fantastic analysis about the six red flags facing China's economy. Here's the breakdown:
🚩GDP Sputters: China's GDP growth is showing signs of slowing down. In the second quarter of 2023, it barely budged at 0.8%, largely because the retail and real estate sectors took a hit. This comes after a more promising 2.2% growth in Q1, which was boosted by pent-up demand post-COVID lockdowns. On an annual basis, China's GDP only expanded by 6.3% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 7.3%.
🚩Export Woes: Exports have been on a rocky road, dropping by a worrisome 14.5% in July. This marks the third consecutive month of declines, hitting levels not seen since February 2020. Even imports are down by 12.4%, reflecting cautious consumer sentiments. Major trading partners like ASEAN, the EU, and the U.S. are all buying less from China, with declines ranging from 15% to 20%.
🚩Deflation Creeps In: The consumer price index is raising eyebrows by slipping into deflation territory, showing a 3% year-over-year decrease. This deflation is driven by falling prices in categories like Household Articles and Services, Food & Tobacco, and Transportation and Communications. Meanwhile, producers are also feeling the pinch, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) drCan China come back from THIS?
The economic data is in... and it's bleak. While I'm an eternal optimist, it's hard to deny that China is struggling.
But just HOW bad is it?
Visual Capitalist just released a fantastic analysis about the six red flags facing China's economy. Here's the breakdown:
🚩GDP Sputters: China's GDP growth is showing signs of slowing down. In the second quarter of 2023, it barely budged at 0.8%, largely because the retail and real estate sectors took a hit. This comes after a more promising 2.2% growth in Q1, which was boosted by pent-up demand post-COVID lockdowns. On an annual basis, China's GDP only expanded by 6.3% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 7.3%.
🚩Export Woes: Exports have been on a rocky road, dropping by a worrisome 14.5% in July. This marks the third consecutive month of declines, hitting levels not seen since February 2020. Even imports are down by 12.4%, reflecting cautious consumer sentiments. Major trading partners like ASEAN, the EU, and the U.S. are all buying less from China, with declines ranging from 15% to 20%.
🚩Deflation Creeps In: The consumer price index is raising eyebrows by slipping into deflation territory, showing a 3% year-over-year decrease. This deflation is driven by falling prices in categories like Household Articles and Services, Food & Tobacco, and Transportation and Communications. Meanwhile, producers are also feeling the pinch, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropping 4.4% year-over-year for ten consecutive months.
🚩Youth Job Woes: While the overall unemployment rate held steady at 5.3% in August 2023 (up slightly from 5.2% the previous month), there's a concerning trend among urban youth aged 16 to 24. In July, their unemployment rate skyrocketed to 21.3%, the highest ever recorded, leading to a suspension of future releases by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
🚩Yuan vs. USD Struggles: As economic troubles mount, China's currency, the yuan, hit a 16-year low against the U.S. dollar in offshore trading on August 16, 2023. To stabilize the currency, Chinese banks began buying yuan in offshore money markets. The spread between the People's Bank of China's fixed exchange rate and the offshore rate also widened significantly.
🚩Lending Languishes: The borrowing mood in China is gloomy as well. New bank loans tumbled to just ¥346 billion in July, a sharp drop from ¥3.05 trillion the previous month. This is the lowest reading since late-2009 and falls far short of the ¥780 billion forecasted by economists.
What do you think?
#Data is beautiful #A Glance of China 行摄中国

